BTC finds 25,000 a step too far for now
This Daily Digest will cover:
- 🪙 BTC finds 25,000 a step too far for now
- 📊 Stock markets finally show signs of weakness
- 🇺🇸 USD firm but struggling to make headway
After numerous attempts to gain traction above 25,000 BTC finally threw in the towel as profit taking took over.
We open at 23,900 this morning, and whilst I remain confident the next significant move is higher, for now the macro picture I highlighted recently has taken the wind out of Crypto’s sails. The move is pretty broad based and it seems we are watching wider risk markets for our next move.
Speaking of the wider risk markets, my Stock market call is playing out nicely as the recent upside surprises in inflation have seen 10 year US yields break above 3.9%. I have lightened my shorts in nasdaq and S/P today ahead of the FOMC minutes but I am looking to add on any bounce. I suspect the minutes released tonight may actually appear to be on the dovish side as they are a little out of date, which I hope will give me a bounce in risk to sell into and a dip in the USD to buy.
In FX land the USD is bid but making little headway. USD/JPY is struggling to overcome 135.00 which is the key to unlocking a bigger move higher. With the BOJ speaking on Thursday this trade may have to wait as the risks are finely balanced. GBP has had 3 attempts below 1.2000 but was saved by strong PMI data yesterday which saw a nasty move up to 1.2150. As a long term fan of GBP underperformance I am having to take a step back here until we break below 1.1960 or a rally above 1.2200. The Euro is trading steadily lower without setting the world alight. In line with my view on the FOMC above, I am hoping for a pop above 1.0700 to establish fresh shorts in the absence of real momentum lower.
Good luck as always.
