1 Minute Market Rundown – 1st August 2022

New Month, Similar Story
Crypto Consolidates Near the Top of the Range
Data Light Until Friday

A new month is upon us, the sun is shining and the birds are chirping. First sentence in and I am padding this piece out as frankly there isn’t much fresh to say. Friday saw the markets endure their usual month end whip without making much headway either direction. The main mover is Usd/Jpy as long positions continue to be unwound. This will be an interesting barometer for broader markets moving forwards as with cleaner positioning the rates story will play out here very quickly. Strong data will see the bulls rush back in and vice versa.

Risk finished the month strongly with the Nasdaq quietly up 12% in July, notching up a record gain. Of course, ETH almost doubling puts that in the shade for this scribe but then I am a little biased.

So where from here? Well whilst i remain overwhelmingly bearish for the Euro the timing of the trade is tricky. We haven’t had the move above 1.0300 that I was worried about on Friday and that remains the risk prior to a resumption of the sell off. The unwind of Usd/Jpy longs looks like it has further to run but I will be tempted into longs on the approach towards 130.00.

Crypto has remained steady at the top of its range without making any fresh progress. Price action remains constructive but with momentum waning we may see better levels to buy. ETH at 1520 and BTC at 22,400 look like nice entry points to me.

The data calendar is dominated by Non farm Payrolls on Friday which have taken on fresh significance since the FOMC placed the jobs market squarely in its focus for future interest rate decisions. Until then trade the extremes.

Good luck all!

Richard Usher – Head of OTC Trading

Richard Usher

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