BTC leaps overnight
Today we’ll cover:
- Israel situation dominates
- Bond rout stabilises
- USD strong but not making new highs yet
- BTC leaps overnight as SEC hide
Events in Israel have caused havoc in the markets over the last week, but frankly that pales into signiﬁcance when considered against the human loss of life and atrocities faced out there. It feels churlish to write about the effects on markets at times like this, but write I must. Please do not take the economic views as in any way a lack of acknowledgment of the situation.
The situation in Israel saw bond markets gather momentum before reversing and caused stock markets in the U.S and Europe to tumble on Friday. The move gathered pace as inﬂation in the U.S just beat expectations last week but, in my opinion, not by enough to prompt the FOMC into action next month. From here it is a difﬁcult call and all eyes will be watching for further escalation, which sadly seems likely. The world’s favourite safe haven currency the CHF was a big winner as EUR/CHF made new lows for the year.
There is a large part of me that wants to fade these moves as my game plan for Q4 is stocks higher and USD lower. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face and for now I have been forced to reduce my risk. Any sign of de-escalation will be met with a huge relief rally and the optimist in me remains hopeful.
Crypto has been quietly drifting lower as the headwinds, for ETH especially, come to the fore. This changed last night as the SEC missed the deadline to appeal the Grayscale decision. This seems another indicator that ETF approval is coming sooner rather than later. The question now becomes how positioned is the market for the news? Are we all relying on this to ignite a rally that won’t follow? I remain hopeful but nervous. We need to see BTC above 29,000 on a closing basis to banish doubts from my mind.
Good luck as always
Head of OTC Trading
The information contained in this document should not be relied upon by investors or any other persons to make financial decisions. It is gathered from various sources and should not be construed as guidance. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to buy or sell digital assets or any equivalents or any security or investment product of any kind either generally or in any jurisdiction where the offer or sale is not permitted. The views expressed in this document about the markets, market participants and/or digital assets accurately reflect the views of BCB Group. While opinions stated are honestly held, they are not guarantees, should not be relied on and are subject to change. The information or opinions provided should not be taken as specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. This document may contain statements about expected or anticipated future events and financial results that are forward-looking in nature and, as a result, are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, such as general economic, market and business conditions, new legislation and regulatory actions, competitive and general economic factors and conditions and the occurrence of unexpected events. Past performance of the digital asset markets or markets in their derivative instruments is not a viable indication of future performance with actual results possibly differing materially from those stated herein. We will not be responsible for any losses incurred by a client as a result of decisions made based on any information provided.